Educational Sustainability Analytics for Green Hospitality in Heritage Cities: Forecasting Operational Resilience During Demand Surges in Ujjain

Abstract

Event-driven sharp demand peaks at heritage sites like Ujjain place strain on hotel utilities and waste systems, and vendor networks which makes the criterion volatile in sustainability due to a high level of reputational and operational risk. This research paper suggested an operational-resilience analytics model capable of predicting the future-month composite Sustainability Score (SSS) of hotels, as well as the uncertainty and risk of downgrading of the tier during high pilgrimage seasons. The framework, which is based on an auditable indicator system, energy use intensity (EUI), water intensity (WI), waste segregation rate (WSR), carbon per guest-night (CF), and eco-certification compliance (ECA), occupancy normalizing using the better comparison of similar heterogeneous properties and months. An entropy-weighted SSS is calculated in order to focus on indicators that are more cross-hotel differentiated and managerial leveraged, without compromising on transparency to be adopted by the auditor. In order to operationalize resilience, a short-horizon gradient-boosting forecaster to predict SSFT Joel single c. lag based predictors, occupancy bands, and stress indicators derived to guests (e.g., water-pressure complaints and towel/linen program uptake). The amount of uncertainty is measured by bootstrapping with a hotel-level of metering and Monte Carlo error propagation over metering and vendor-ticket noise, which generates prediction intervals and breach probability (i.e. probability of dropping to a tier threshold). The system aids in decision making regarding pre-emptive maintenance by transforming forecasts into evaluated scenarios i.e. leak repair, segregation SOP tightness and HVAC set-point discipline prioritized on marginal uplift and feasibility under peak constraint. Findings indicate that uncertainty-informed forecasting can enhance consistency of sustainability governance in times of demand shocks where hotel managers and other stakeholders in the city can synchronize resources, plan inspections, and preserve guest experience as well as to promote quantifiable green hospitality impacts.