Analysis of the Determinants of Indonesian Coffee Exports to Malaysia

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the development of Indonesian coffee export volume to Malaysia, world coffee prices, the rupiah exchange rate against the ringgit, and Malaysia's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during 2014–2023, and analyze the influence of these three variables on the volume of Indonesian coffee exports to Malaysia. The study uses a descriptive quantitative approach with secondary data sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics, Trade Map, Bank Indonesia, and the World Bank. The analysis was conducted using descriptive analysis and multiple linear regression with the help of SPSS 29. The results show that the volume of Indonesian coffee exports to Malaysia fluctuated during the observation period with an average development of -1 percent. World coffee prices have a positive coefficient and have an effect at the 10 percent significance level, but are not yet significant at the 5 percent level. The rupiah exchange rate against the ringgit has a negative coefficient and does not have a significant effect. Malaysia's real GDP has a negative coefficient and has a significant effect at the 5 percent level. Simultaneously, world coffee prices, exchange rates, and Malaysia's real GDP have a significant effect on the volume of Indonesian coffee exports to Malaysia. The R² value of 0.823 indicates that 82.3 percent of the variation in export volume in the model can be explained by the three independent variables, while the remaining 17.7 percent is explained by factors outside the model. The findings should be read with caution, as the study only used 10 annual observations