Crude Oil Import Dependence and India’s Energy Vulnerability: An Empirical Study of Energy Trade, 2014–2024

Abstract

India's crude-oil security issue is not just a result of high imports; rather, it is a result of growing reliance on imports as domestic crude production has decreased and transportation energy intensity has increased. Using official MoSPI indicators, this paper creates a transparent Crude Oil Energy Vulnerability Index (CO-EVI) and uses trend analysis, compound annual growth rates (CAGR), correlations, a log–log demand proxy, and a structural-period comparison to assess the financial-year evidence from 2014–15–2023–24. According to MoSPI, domestic output decreased from 37.46 MT to 29.36 MT, while imports of crude oil rose from 189.43 MT in 2014–15 to 234.26 MT in 2023–24. The net reliance on imports of crude oil increased from 83.49% to 88.86%. On a scale of 0 to 100, the equal-weight CO-EVI, which combines import reliance, high-speed diesel wholesale costs, transport energy intensity, and erosion of domestic production, rose from 8.77 to 95.33. Instead of being a causal welfare metric, the index is descriptive. Evidence suggests that, despite improvements in the economy-wide energy intensity, India's vulnerability is caused by a structural import-production imbalance, exposure to price shocks, and reliance on transportation. In order to protect macroeconomic buffers without stifling efficiency incentives, the paper suggests a multifaceted approach that includes accelerating transport electrification and efficiency, deepening supplier and route diversification, bolstering strategic stocks, and expanding domestic production only where it is both economically and environmentally feasible.