Socio-Demographic Determinants of Crime; A Geographic Analysis of Population, Literacy and Property Crime incidence in Nagaon District, Assam

Abstract

Property crime exhibits considerable spatial variation because opportunities for offending, population concentration and socio-economic conditions differ across geographical areas. This study examines the relationship between population growth, literacy and property crime across police station jurisdictions in Nagaon district, Assam. Official crime records and population and literacy data obtained from the Census of India were used to construct police station-level indicators. Population data from the 2001 Census were related to property crimes recorded during 2001–2010, while 2011 Census data were used for the subsequent period. Pearson’s correlation coefficient and descriptive comparative analysis were employed to evaluate the associations between the selected socio-economic variables and overall and category-specific property crime. The results reveal substantial spatial variation across police station jurisdictions. Population growth had a weak positive association with property crime growth (r = 0.38), indicating that jurisdictions experiencing rapid population increase generally tended to record higher crime growth, although important exceptions were observed. Literacy also showed a weak positive association with overall property crime (r = 0.23). Crime-specific analysis revealed weak positive associations for theft and burglary, while dacoity, robbery, extortion and theft in dwelling houses displayed weak negative relationships with literacy. These findings indicate that population and literacy alone cannot adequately explain the spatial distribution of property crime. Local employment conditions, accessibility, urban functions, policing, reporting practices and community-level circumstances may exert greater influence. The study demonstrates the importance of analysing crime at the police station level and cautions against interpreting socio-economic indicators as direct causes of criminal behaviour