Technology-Oriented Defence Industrial Independence: An AHP Framework for Indonesian Naval Shipbuilding

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to analyze the role of industrial capabilities in achieving defence industrial independence in Indonesian naval shipbuilding technology. The research develops a capability-driven decision-making framework to evaluate the relative importance of strategic capability dimensions that support long-term naval defence self-reliance.

Methodology: The study employs a mixed-method approach integrating qualitative expert judgment and quantitative analysis using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Expert elicitation was conducted involving stakeholders from defence institutions, naval operational units, defence industries, and research organizations.

Results: The quantitative findings reveal that Technological Capability is the most influential factor with a priority weight of 0.32 (32%), followed by Human Resource Capability at 0.24 (24%), and Production & Infrastructure Capability at 0.17 (17%). Research and Development Capability contributes 0.12 (12%), while Supply Chain & Domestic Content Capability and Institutional & Policy Support Capability contribute 0.09 (9%) and 0.06 (6%), respectively. The AHP model achieved a Consistency Ratio (CR) of 0.084, indicating acceptable logical consistency. Scenario evaluation shows that the High Self-Reliance Domestic Capability scenario obtained the highest priority weight of 0.53, outperforming the Partial Domestic Capability with Technology Transfer scenario (0.29) and the Import-Dependent scenario (0.18).

Conclusion: Defence industrial independence in naval shipbuilding technology is primarily determined by cumulative technological mastery and human resource capability rather than infrastructure expansion or procurement volume alone. The findings demonstrate that capability-oriented industrial strategies provide the most sustainable pathway toward long-term naval defence resilience and strategic autonomy.

Limitation: This study relies on expert judgment, which may introduce subjective bias despite consistency validation. In addition, the analysis focuses specifically on the naval shipbuilding sector and may not fully represent other defence industrial domains.

Contribution: This study contributes theoretically by reconceptualizing defence industrial independence as a capability-driven technological ecosystem rather than a binary domestic-versus-foreign production condition. Methodologically, it extends the application of AHP as a strategic policy evaluation framework in defence industrial studies.