An Econometric Assessment of Rice Production and Export Performance in India (2000–01 To 2024–25)

Abstract

This study analyses the trends, growth, and instability in rice production and export performance in India from 2000–01 to 2024–25, utilizing secondary data and standard econometric tools. Linear and semi-logarithmic trend models were utilized to assess the direction and compound growth rates of area, production, yield, export value, and export quantity of rice. Additionally, instability was measured by using the Coefficient of Variation and the Cuddy–Della Valle Instability Index. The findings revealed that rice production in India underwent consistent rise, predominantly propelled by enhancements in productivity rather than an increase in cultivated area. Production and yield exhibited notable positive trends, with compound growth rates of 2.3 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively, while area of cultivation had a slight annual expansion of 0.4 percent. Rice exports experienced significant growth, with export value and quantity increasing by 16.2 percent and 10.0 percent, respectively, while also capturing a larger share in total agricultural exports. Instability analysis indicated low variability in area, production, and yield, yet high instability in export value and quantity, signifying heightened sensitivity of exports to global market fluctuations and policy alterations. The study indicated that India has a robust and steady production foundation that can facilitate export growth, however, export performance is susceptible to external shocks. Consequently, suitable policy support is crucial for maintaining productivity growth and stabilizing export revenues.